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Manulife Investment Management: Global Markets Growth Become More Uneven in H2 2026

Singapore – Manulife Investment Management today released its Asia markets and investment outlook for the second half of 2026, highlighting a landscape shaped by persistent geopolitical conflicts, shifting central bank dynamics, and structural opportunities across Asian equities and fixed income. 

As global central banks adopt a more hawkish stance to combat inflation risks, the firm emphasized the critical importance of active management and asset selection. While the ongoing Middle East conflict introduces near-term uncertainty, Asia’s structural resilience – anchored by technology infrastructure expansion and localized energy buffers – continues to provide distinct diversification advantages for global portfolios. 

Global Macro Outlook: Managing stagflation risks and divergent cycles

The macroeconomic environment entering the second half of the year remains closely tied to the duration of global supply chain disruptions and elevated commodity prices, with the path of normalization across energy and shipping channels remaining uncertain. Yuting Shao, Senior Global Macro Strategist, noted that the protracted Middle East conflict has altered global central bank trajectories. 

Shao said: “Earlier expectations of uniform monetary easing have shifted, as persistent energy cost shocks have forced central banks across several regions to maintain hawkish positions to preempt second-round inflationary impacts. However, global economic cycles remain far from uniform. Economies with strong localized energy defenses or those directly propelled by the ongoing technology supercycle are proving significantly more resilient.” 

She added: “In Chinese Mainland, the combination of energy import diversification, domestic price controls, and ample inventories has successfully insulated the onshore ecosystem from the worst of the global oil shock. Backed by solid baseline growth, policymakers possess the flexibility to respond dynamically if external conditions deteriorate.”

Asia multi-asset: Dynamic selectivity in a "higher-for-longer" world

Luke Browne, Global Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, believes a more uneven macro environment is reinforcing the need for selective and diversified asset allocation.

Browne commented: “With robust labor markets delaying meaningful monetary easing, we maintain a highly selective approach to asset allocation. While markets are underpinned by resilient earnings and steady growth, risks and opportunities are becoming increasingly uneven across regions and asset classes, underscoring the importance of diversification and active management.”

He continued: “We expect equity leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap technology and artificial intelligence (AI) into high-quality, value-oriented segments. Maintaining a balanced multi-asset approach will be key to navigating geopolitical and valuation volatility, while selectively capturing opportunities across global markets, as Asia continues to benefit from structural growth and AI-related investment themes.

We also see support for select real assets, including commodities linked to the AI buildout, alongside opportunities in credit where yields remain attractive. At the same time, we favor shorter-duration fixed income to help manage interest rate risks.”

Asia Equities: Capitalizing on the AI infrastructure boom and structural reform

The outlook for Asian equities remains constructive heading into the second half of 2026, supported by improving earnings visibility, easing financial conditions, and differentiated growth drivers across the region.

June Chua, Head of Asia Equities, said: “In Chinese Mainland, we see a more sustained improvement in the earnings outlook over the next 12 to 18 months, following a period of weakness. As the economic recovery broadens and the industrial cycle stabilizes, we continue to see opportunities across areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and power equipment. Together with supportive policy dynamics and still-attractive valuations, this points to a more constructive backdrop for China equities over the medium term.

At the same time, Taiwan and South Korea continue to benefit from strong momentum in the AI ecosystem, where deep and resilient supply chains, combined with ongoing technological upgrades, are translating into tangible earnings growth across semiconductors and related industries.”

Chua added: “Across ASEAN, while near-term challenges persist, we are seeing coordinated policy efforts and strengthening domestic demand that could support a more durable recovery. Against this backdrop, Asia equities offer a differentiated source of growth and diversification. However, dispersion across markets and sectors remains elevated, reinforcing the importance of active management and a disciplined, selective approach to capturing opportunities in the region.”

Asia Fixed Income: Income and diversification in a more hawkish environment

Murray Collis, Head of Asia Fixed Income, observed that amid ongoing interest rate uncertainty, Asia fixed income is well positioned in the second half of 2026 as investors look for resilient sources of income and diversification.

Collis commented: “Asia fixed income offers an attractive combination of higher yields and shorter duration compared to global peers, providing a more resilient income buffer against interest rate volatility. We see opportunities across both Asia dollar credits and selective local currency bond markets, where supportive policy and solid fundamentals can help anchor returns.

Within credit, Asia high yield stands out for its compelling carry and improving fundamentals, while investment grade remains supported by healthy regional growth. In local markets, selectivity is key, with countries such as Japan and India offering differentiated opportunities as policy settings and market dynamics support rates and currencies.”

He also noted that technical factors continue to provide support, with constrained net supply in Asia dollar bonds helping to underpin valuations. “Against this backdrop, Asia fixed income remains well positioned to provide income and diversification, while offering relative resilience in the second half of 2026.”

A Strategy Built on Adaptive Resilience

As the second half of 2026 progresses, Manulife Investment Management concludes that managing portfolio outcomes will hinge on an investor’s ability to adapt to diverging regional growth rates and stickier inflation backdrops. By leveraging Asia’s strong corporate balance sheets, policy flexibility, and structural technology tailwinds, investors are well-positioned to unlock unique avenues for steady, long-term returns.

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