TORONTO AND BOSTON — In Manulife Asset Management’s latest "Salient 7" report, Chief Economist Megan Greene and co-Head of Asset Allocation Robert Boyda outline the seven themes that they believe will underpin macroeconomic and market dynamics in the foreseeable future.
The latest report takes into account developments in the last 20 months and examines what it could mean for policymakers as well as investors.
Additionally, Greene notes, "Central bank action has pushed government borrowing costs down significantly. In January 2015, the total value of negative yielding sovereign debt was US$4 trillion. Now, it’s closer to $12 trillion."1
While it makes sense for policymakers to turn to fiscal stimulus to spur growth, Greene notes that the political calendar in the next 12 months could restrict their ability to act, particularly in light of the rise of an anti-elite, anti-globalization discourse in the Western world.
According to Greene, "This has led to a rise in uncertainty, which is being fed back into economic and political indicators, creating a skittish loop. This isn’t going to help either investments or consumption."
Robert Boyda, co-Head of Asset Allocation agrees and notes additionally, “We believe bond investors will not get much out of conventional fixed income for some time. We see potential value in a much more active, opportunistic, flexible and risk-aware approach; the search for yield may require a global focus with attention to coupons, safety, currency and policy-driven risk. Emerging Market debt and high yield bonds may offer fair value. It may be difficult to find value outside of special situations driven by periodic global dislocations; we believe this means embracing the volatility and uncertainty which provide opportunities.
In a low-growth, low-inflation world, equity investors have flocked to defensive, dividend-paying sectors and stocks that behave like bonds; we believe valuations here reflect too much enthusiasm. The overindebtedness that limits government spending means that fiscal policy driven growth will be scarce. In a low-growth world, valuations are full for US equities. European equities could offer opportunities for those willing to look past the myriad crises; we think it is still too early. Emerging Markets equities are relatively inexpensive, and the valuation buffer could provide a measure of safety in a volatile asset class.
"As long as central banks stay accommodative, risks of a policy-induced recession are low. But that doesn’t eliminate the likelihood of significant price corrections; embrace the volatility."
The Salient 7 report lists seven themes that the authors believe will underpin macroeconomic and market dynamics in the foreseeable future, and attempts to map out what it could mean for investors.
1. Over-indebtedness: Total indebtedness by governments and households continues to increase
2. Ample Liquidity: The global economy is awash with liquidity and credit, thanks to successive rounds of easing measures by major central banks
3. Beggar-thy-neighbor currency actions: Countries are hoping to boost demand and growth by increasing their competitiveness via a weaker currency
4. Regulation glut: As capital requirements for other assets rise, investing in sovereign bonds has become more attractive from a capital cost perspective
5. Demographics and the drive toward debt: An aging population encourages many investors to shift into fixed income from equities
6. Low government bond yields: Secular stagnation and easy monetary policy is likely to mean the continued compression of government bond yields
7. Lowflation: Lack of global demand is expected to translate into little upward pressure on inflation, with many central banks missing their inflation targets.
1. Bloomberg: Negative-Yielding Bonds Jump to Almost $12 Trillion, Oct 2, 2016
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Investments
The contents on this website are for information only and without consideration given to the specific investment objective, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person and Manulife does not make any representation that the securities, investment products or services referred to, discussed on, or accessible through, this website are suitable for any particular investor. You should consider whether the security, investment product or service in question is suitable for you and may wish to seek professional advice before making a commitment to invest in any such security, investment product or to engage such service.
The contents on this website is not and should not be construed as being an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product that may be referred to, discussed on, or accessible through this website. Nor does this website constitute an offering or recommendation by Manulife of any security, investment product, investment management service, or advisory service. Manulife does not provide and should not be construed as providing investment advice, tax advice, or legal advice through this website, and you agree that this website will not be used by you for such purposes. You acknowledge that any requests that may be made by you for information on any security, investment product or service are unsolicited, and the provision of any information through this website shall not constitute or be considered investment advice, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, investment product or service.
Any forecasts or opinions set out on this website are Manulife's own as at the date of the relevant document and may change without notice and should not be regarded as a guarantee or indication of future or likely performance of the subject matter in question. Whilst Manulife believes that the information provided on this website is correct at the date of production, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and Manulife expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions provided on this website or the accuracy or completeness thereof and no responsibility can be accepted by Manulife to anyone for any action taken on the basis of such information or opinions.
An offer of units in any fund referenced in this website may only be made in or accompanied by a prospectus and/or relevant offering document(s) in respect of such offer. The information and materials set out in this website is not to be taken as a substitute for the prospectus and/or offering document(s) of the relevant fund, as applicable, and you are advised to read the relevant documents (which are available and may be obtained from Manulife Singapore or any of its authorised distributors]) before applying for units in any fund.
Investments in any fund are not deposits in, guaranteed or insured by Manulife. The value of units in any fund and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. You should be aware that investment in any fund involves financial risk and you may not get back the principal amount invested. Depending on your currency of reference, factors including but not limited to currency fluctuations may adversely affect the value of your investments and the income accruing there from.
On this website:
Use of Email
The security of electronic mail sent through the Internet is not guaranteed. Do not send sensitive or confidential information to us via electronic mail. Delivery, and timely delivery, of electronic mail is also not guaranteed. Manulife therefore recommends that you do not send time-sensitive or action-oriented messages to us via electronic mail. Manulife may not, and is not obliged to, process your requests, orders, or instructions until Manulife can confirm your instructions or obtain appropriate written documentation where it deems necessary.
Manulife shall not be under any obligation whatsoever, express or implied, to reply to unsolicited correspondence, communications or email or to acknowledge receipt of the same.
Privacy and Data Protection
Your privacy is very important to Manulife. To the extent any information you provide or which we obtain from this website constitutes personal data, we have set procedures for the use of that information.
You agree that all information and/or particulars sent or submitted by you through the website is non-confidential and non-proprietary unless otherwise expressly indicated by you. You acknowledge that Manulife, its directors, officers, employees, contractors and agents shall not be subject to any confidentiality obligations in respect of any such information and/or particulars and you agree that Manulife, its directors, officers, employees, contractors and agents may, and you hereby authorise each of them to, use and to disclose such information to any person (including without limitation any third party service provider) in connection with Manulife's internal business purposes.
Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, you consent to the processing by Manulife of the personal data submitted by you through the website and/or created in the course of the business relationship with Manulife, and to the transmission of such personal data to other companies within the Manulife (by the internet or otherwise) for purposes connected with marketing and customer administration. If you do not wish your information to be used in this way, you should advise Manulife in writing.
If you have any questions on our data protection policies and practices, please write to us at our corporate address:
The Data Protection Officer
Manulife Investment Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
8 Cross Street
#16-01 Manulife Tower
Singapore 048424
Disclaimers
Manulife does not warrant this website for any particular purpose. It is provided "as is" and on an "as available" basis. Manulife disclaims, to the fullest extent of the law, any warranty of any kind, whether statutory, express or implied, as to any information, materials, content or matter provided at or through this website or otherwise relating to this website, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement of third party rights, or freedom from computer virus or other malicious destruction or corrupting code, agent, program or macros. Use of this website is at your own risk.
Manulife and its directors, officers, or employees will not be liable or have any responsibility of any kind for any loss or damage that you incur arising from or in connection with:
Manulife does not warrant that this website, or the functions contained in this website, will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that this website, or the servers that make it available, are free from viruses or other harmful components. You assume the entire cost of any necessary servicing, repairing, or correcting of your property or operations as a result of using this website. You accept at your own risk that the Internet or other online communications medium may not perform as intended as a result of human, mechanical, or other error, despite the efforts of Manulife, you, or any third party.
In no event will Manulife or its directors, officers, or employees be liable to you for any direct, indirect, special, consequential, or incidental damages related in any way to your use of this website, even if: (a) such damages are reasonably foreseeable; or (b) Manulife or any other party has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
Records
You acknowledge and agree that Manulife Singapore's records and any records of communications, transactions, instructions or operations relating to the operation of the website and any record of any communications, transactions, instructions or operations maintained by Manulife Singapore or by any relevant person authorised by Manulife Singapore relating to or connected with the website shall be binding on you for all purposes whatsoever and shall be conclusive evidence of such communications, transactions, instructions or operations. You agree that such records are admissible in evidence and that you shall not challenge or dispute the admissibility, reliability, accuracy or the authenticity of the contents of such records merely on the basis that such records were in electronic form or were produced by or are the output of a computer system, and hereby waive any of your rights (if any) to so object.
Governing Law
These Terms shall be subject to, governed by, and construed in accordance with the laws of Singapore, and you hereby submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the Singapore Courts.
