12 September 2022
Market volatility is unavoidable. Despite this, data shows that the number of years with positive returns is still higher than those with negative returns, as indicated by the historical performance of Asian equities1. So, how should investors stay calm and ride through market ups and downs?
Volatility is a normal feature of investing, especially when it comes to equities. However, some investors might not be aware that historically, the number of positive years outweighs those that resulted in negative returns. Understanding market psychology – the overall sentiment or behaviour that the market experiences at any given time – provides some revealing insights into the world of investing.
The chart below shows the calendar-year performance of Asian equity markets, represented by the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index, from 1994 to 2021 (28 calendar years). The data reveals that the number of years with positive returns (17 years) was higher than those with negative returns (11 years).
What about market ups and downs? For Asian equities, annual market returns rose or declined by over 20% in 12 years. Drilling deeper and despite this volatility, the number of years when returns were up by more than 20% (9 years) outnumbered those when returns fell by greater than 20% (3 years).
As we can see from the chart below, market swings are inevitable, but there was still a greater chance of generating positive returns. The question is: How should investors remain calm and stay invested even when market conditions are stormy?
Source: Bloomberg, as of 31 December 2021. Total returns in US Dollar. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Let's look at a hypothetical example of two investors: Investor A and Investor B. Both invested US$ 10,000 on 31 December 2011, with 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds.
Asian equities ended 2017 on a high due to a strengthening global economy. By the end of that year, Investor A had made no changes to the original allocation. At the same time, investor B performed a review and rebalanced the portfolio back to its initial allocation.
Event: On 23 March 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, which sent the stock market tumbling.
Action: In response, Investor A sold all the stock and bond investments, while Investor B again rebalanced the portfolio by selling bonds and buying stocks.
Outcome: On 31 December 2021, Investor B generated a total return of +89.87%, 1.64 times more than that of Investor A (+34.04%).
The graph below shows how their investment performance varied by adopting different approaches.
Source: Bloomberg, as of 31 December 2021. Total returns in US Dollar. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Like medical check-ups to detect health issues, it’s important for investors to review and rebalance your portfolio regularly, so your investment remains on track during market rallies and dips. Remaining invested rather than leaving the market immediately could potentially reap better results. In practice, this could mean adjusting a particular segment of your portfolio when markets rise or fall so it doesn’t outweigh or underweight the initial allocation.
1 Asian equities refer to MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index. This index was launched on 30 September 1993.
2 Stock = MSCI AC Asia ex Japan gross total return US$ index
3 Bond = 50% JPMorgan Asia Credit Index (as of 31 December 2021) + 50% HSBC Asian Local Bond Index (as of 2012)/Markit iBoxx Asian Local Bond Index (1 January 2013 to 31 December 2021).
4 Cash = USD overnight deposit rate
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You are responsible for obtaining, installing, maintaining and operating all software, hardware or other equipment (collectively, “System”) necessary for you to access and use and access this website. This responsibility includes, without limitation, your utilising up to date web-browsers and the best commercially available encryption, antivirus, anti-spyware, and internet security software. You are additionally responsible for obtaining Internet services via the Internet service provider of your choice, for any and all fees imposed by such Internet service provider and any associated communications service provider charges. You acknowledge that there are certain security, corruption, transmission error, and access availability risks associated with using open networks such as the Internet and you hereby expressly assume such risks, including, but not limited to those we may disclose in our materials. You acknowledge that you are responsible for the data security of the Systems used to access this website, and for the transmission and receipt of information using such Systems. You acknowledge that you have requested access to the website for your convenience, have made your own independent assessment of the adequacy of the Internet and Systems and that you are satisfied with that assessment. Manulife Singapore is not responsible for any errors or problems that arise from the malfunction or failure of the Internet or your Systems nor are we responsible for notifying you of any upgrades, fixes, or enhancements to, or for providing technical or other support for your Systems. Although we may provide a link to a third party site where you may download software, we make no endorsement of any specific software, hardware or Internet Service Provider and your use of any such software, hardware or service may also be subject to the license or other agreements of that provider, in addition to these Terms of Use.
Hyperlinks
We do not recommend or endorse and accept no responsibility for the content of any website not operated by Manulife Singapore which you may visit by following a link from this website. You acknowledge and agree that Manulife Singapore is not responsible for the availability of such third-party sites or resources, and do not endorse, approve, investigate or verify, and are not responsible or liable for any content, advertising, products, or other materials on or available from such sites or resources. You further agree that Manulife Singapore shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with use of or reliance on any such content, products or services available on such external sites or resources. These links are provided as a convenience and solely for informational purposes. Manulife Singapore is not making any recommendation to invest in, purchase, or sell any securities or other products or services issued by the companies with the linked sites, nor has Manulife Singapore sought to verify or confirm the information contained in the linked sites. Accordingly, Manulife Singapore disclaims any responsibility for the linked sites.
No other website, without the prior written permission of Manulife Singapore, is authorized to link to any part of this website.
Investments
The contents on this website are for information only and without consideration given to the specific investment objective, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person and Manulife does not make any representation that the securities, investment products or services referred to, discussed on, or accessible through, this website are suitable for any particular investor. You should consider whether the security, investment product or service in question is suitable for you and may wish to seek professional advice before making a commitment to invest in any such security, investment product or to engage such service.
The contents on this website is not and should not be construed as being an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product that may be referred to, discussed on, or accessible through this website. Nor does this website constitute an offering or recommendation by Manulife of any security, investment product, investment management service, or advisory service. Manulife does not provide and should not be construed as providing investment advice, tax advice, or legal advice through this website, and you agree that this website will not be used by you for such purposes. You acknowledge that any requests that may be made by you for information on any security, investment product or service are unsolicited, and the provision of any information through this website shall not constitute or be considered investment advice, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, investment product or service.
Any forecasts or opinions set out on this website are Manulife's own as at the date of the relevant document and may change without notice and should not be regarded as a guarantee or indication of future or likely performance of the subject matter in question. Whilst Manulife believes that the information provided on this website is correct at the date of production, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and Manulife expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions provided on this website or the accuracy or completeness thereof and no responsibility can be accepted by Manulife to anyone for any action taken on the basis of such information or opinions.
An offer of units in any fund referenced in this website may only be made in or accompanied by a prospectus and/or relevant offering document(s) in respect of such offer. The information and materials set out in this website is not to be taken as a substitute for the prospectus and/or offering document(s) of the relevant fund, as applicable, and you are advised to read the relevant documents (which are available and may be obtained from Manulife Singapore or any of its authorised distributors]) before applying for units in any fund.
Investments in any fund are not deposits in, guaranteed or insured by Manulife. The value of units in any fund and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. You should be aware that investment in any fund involves financial risk and you may not get back the principal amount invested. Depending on your currency of reference, factors including but not limited to currency fluctuations may adversely affect the value of your investments and the income accruing there from.
On this website:
Use of Email
The security of electronic mail sent through the Internet is not guaranteed. Do not send sensitive or confidential information to us via electronic mail. Delivery, and timely delivery, of electronic mail is also not guaranteed. Manulife therefore recommends that you do not send time-sensitive or action-oriented messages to us via electronic mail. Manulife may not, and is not obliged to, process your requests, orders, or instructions until Manulife can confirm your instructions or obtain appropriate written documentation where it deems necessary.
Manulife shall not be under any obligation whatsoever, express or implied, to reply to unsolicited correspondence, communications or email or to acknowledge receipt of the same.
Privacy and Data Protection
Your privacy is very important to Manulife. To the extent any information you provide or which we obtain from this website constitutes personal data, we have set procedures for the use of that information.
You agree that all information and/or particulars sent or submitted by you through the website is non-confidential and non-proprietary unless otherwise expressly indicated by you. You acknowledge that Manulife, its directors, officers, employees, contractors and agents shall not be subject to any confidentiality obligations in respect of any such information and/or particulars and you agree that Manulife, its directors, officers, employees, contractors and agents may, and you hereby authorise each of them to, use and to disclose such information to any person (including without limitation any third party service provider) in connection with Manulife's internal business purposes.
Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, you consent to the processing by Manulife of the personal data submitted by you through the website and/or created in the course of the business relationship with Manulife, and to the transmission of such personal data to other companies within the Manulife (by the internet or otherwise) for purposes connected with marketing and customer administration. If you do not wish your information to be used in this way, you should advise Manulife in writing.
If you have any questions on our data protection policies and practices, please write to us at our corporate address:
The Data Protection Officer
Manulife Investment Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
8 Cross Street
#16-01 Manulife Tower
Singapore 048424
Disclaimers
Manulife does not warrant this website for any particular purpose. It is provided "as is" and on an "as available" basis. Manulife disclaims, to the fullest extent of the law, any warranty of any kind, whether statutory, express or implied, as to any information, materials, content or matter provided at or through this website or otherwise relating to this website, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement of third party rights, or freedom from computer virus or other malicious destruction or corrupting code, agent, program or macros. Use of this website is at your own risk.
Manulife and its directors, officers, or employees will not be liable or have any responsibility of any kind for any loss or damage that you incur arising from or in connection with:
Manulife does not warrant that this website, or the functions contained in this website, will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that this website, or the servers that make it available, are free from viruses or other harmful components. You assume the entire cost of any necessary servicing, repairing, or correcting of your property or operations as a result of using this website. You accept at your own risk that the Internet or other online communications medium may not perform as intended as a result of human, mechanical, or other error, despite the efforts of Manulife, you, or any third party.
In no event will Manulife or its directors, officers, or employees be liable to you for any direct, indirect, special, consequential, or incidental damages related in any way to your use of this website, even if: (a) such damages are reasonably foreseeable; or (b) Manulife or any other party has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
Records
You acknowledge and agree that Manulife Singapore's records and any records of communications, transactions, instructions or operations relating to the operation of the website and any record of any communications, transactions, instructions or operations maintained by Manulife Singapore or by any relevant person authorised by Manulife Singapore relating to or connected with the website shall be binding on you for all purposes whatsoever and shall be conclusive evidence of such communications, transactions, instructions or operations. You agree that such records are admissible in evidence and that you shall not challenge or dispute the admissibility, reliability, accuracy or the authenticity of the contents of such records merely on the basis that such records were in electronic form or were produced by or are the output of a computer system, and hereby waive any of your rights (if any) to so object.
Governing Law
These Terms shall be subject to, governed by, and construed in accordance with the laws of Singapore, and you hereby submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the Singapore Courts.
