In this market note, Sue Trinh, Senior Macro Strategist, Manulife Investment Management, examines the immediate impact of COVID-19 on markets in Southeast Asia. She also assesses the potential longer-term effects of the outbreak on the region's economies. Particular attention is paid to GDP growth in Indonesia, India, and the Philippines.
The COVID-19 outbreak is affecting Asian economies through many direct and indirect channels. In summary:
As with most things in markets, any investment thesis depends on the investment horizon.
In the short term, the market may turn its attention to those economies that could become the next COVID-19 hot spots. Worryingly, there have been rapid increases in the confirmed cases reported in Indonesia, India and the Philippines – these are the region’s more populous economies with a more significant share of its low-income households, thinner social-security nets and weaker health infrastructure. These markets have also recorded a higher proportion of deaths, which suggests that the actual number of virus-related infections could be greater than reported due to their lower testing capacity (a function of health infrastructure).
Source: National Sources, Manulife Investment Management, as of 8 April, 2020.
If we look at the longer-term picture, many independent issues have been exacerbated by COVID-19. For instance, a protectionist push is now accelerating across the world, the US dollar is much stronger, and oil-price volatility is creating deflationary pressures, which has implications for credit markets and financial stability. Therefore, rather than a mechanical application of first in, first out, we need a more holistic approach when assessing the potential longer-term economic impact in the region.
Such a view would take into consideration the quality of health infrastructure, testing capacity and fiscal wherewithal of an economy, along with its ability to pivot supply chains and grow domestic demand. Credit and liquidity risk exposures will also be pertinent. While Indonesia, India, and the Philippines may face the near-term risk of local outbreaks, their economies are among the most insulated from a longer-term growth perspective. Indeed, the Asian Development Bank's recent scenario analysis (chart 2 & 3) indicates that these markets are likely to experience the lowest impact on GDP growth, regardless of timescale.
Source: ADB, Manulife Investment Management, as of 8 April, 2020.
Source: ADB, Manulife Investment Management, as of 8 April, 2020.
Near-term newsflow may be negative, particularly as these markets deal with domestic outbreaks. However, the impact of the COVID-19 must also be viewed in a longer-term context. To this end, we believe Southeast Asia should emerge from the pandemic with resiliency.
After elections: What’s next for India?
We analyse the implications of the recent pivotal election and lay out a roadmap for how it may affect India’s economic development and investment opportunities through the ‘5Ds’ framework.
With Fed easing potentially on hold, what does this mean for fixed-income investors?
Expectations for monetary policy have reversed sharply since the beginning of the year, with the market pricing in fewer rate cuts as inflation has proved to be surprisingly sticky. Find out why we remain confident that U.S. high-quality intermediate fixed income still presents a compelling opportunity for investors.
Hong Kong/Mainland China market update
Despite the market fall, we believe that the China Q4 2023 GDP growth trend has already been priced into the index, with some bright spots being neglected. Mainland China’s four mega trends (i.e., the “4As”) remain intact as better-than-expected inventory destocking and increased policy measures suggest a potential bottoming of the economy.
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Investments
The contents on this website are for information only and without consideration given to the specific investment objective, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person and Manulife does not make any representation that the securities, investment products or services referred to, discussed on, or accessible through, this website are suitable for any particular investor. You should consider whether the security, investment product or service in question is suitable for you and may wish to seek professional advice before making a commitment to invest in any such security, investment product or to engage such service.
The contents on this website is not and should not be construed as being an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product that may be referred to, discussed on, or accessible through this website. Nor does this website constitute an offering or recommendation by Manulife of any security, investment product, investment management service, or advisory service. Manulife does not provide and should not be construed as providing investment advice, tax advice, or legal advice through this website, and you agree that this website will not be used by you for such purposes. You acknowledge that any requests that may be made by you for information on any security, investment product or service are unsolicited, and the provision of any information through this website shall not constitute or be considered investment advice, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, investment product or service.
Any forecasts or opinions set out on this website are Manulife's own as at the date of the relevant document and may change without notice and should not be regarded as a guarantee or indication of future or likely performance of the subject matter in question. Whilst Manulife believes that the information provided on this website is correct at the date of production, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and Manulife expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions provided on this website or the accuracy or completeness thereof and no responsibility can be accepted by Manulife to anyone for any action taken on the basis of such information or opinions.
An offer of units in any fund referenced in this website may only be made in or accompanied by a prospectus and/or relevant offering document(s) in respect of such offer. The information and materials set out in this website is not to be taken as a substitute for the prospectus and/or offering document(s) of the relevant fund, as applicable, and you are advised to read the relevant documents (which are available and may be obtained from Manulife Singapore or any of its authorised distributors]) before applying for units in any fund.
Investments in any fund are not deposits in, guaranteed or insured by Manulife. The value of units in any fund and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. You should be aware that investment in any fund involves financial risk and you may not get back the principal amount invested. Depending on your currency of reference, factors including but not limited to currency fluctuations may adversely affect the value of your investments and the income accruing there from.
On this website:
Use of Email
The security of electronic mail sent through the Internet is not guaranteed. Do not send sensitive or confidential information to us via electronic mail. Delivery, and timely delivery, of electronic mail is also not guaranteed. Manulife therefore recommends that you do not send time-sensitive or action-oriented messages to us via electronic mail. Manulife may not, and is not obliged to, process your requests, orders, or instructions until Manulife can confirm your instructions or obtain appropriate written documentation where it deems necessary.
Manulife shall not be under any obligation whatsoever, express or implied, to reply to unsolicited correspondence, communications or email or to acknowledge receipt of the same.
Privacy and Data Protection
Your privacy is very important to Manulife. To the extent any information you provide or which we obtain from this website constitutes personal data, we have set procedures for the use of that information.
You agree that all information and/or particulars sent or submitted by you through the website is non-confidential and non-proprietary unless otherwise expressly indicated by you. You acknowledge that Manulife, its directors, officers, employees, contractors and agents shall not be subject to any confidentiality obligations in respect of any such information and/or particulars and you agree that Manulife, its directors, officers, employees, contractors and agents may, and you hereby authorise each of them to, use and to disclose such information to any person (including without limitation any third party service provider) in connection with Manulife's internal business purposes.
Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, you consent to the processing by Manulife of the personal data submitted by you through the website and/or created in the course of the business relationship with Manulife, and to the transmission of such personal data to other companies within the Manulife (by the internet or otherwise) for purposes connected with marketing and customer administration. If you do not wish your information to be used in this way, you should advise Manulife in writing.
If you have any questions on our data protection policies and practices, please write to us at our corporate address:
The Data Protection Officer
Manulife Investment Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
8 Cross Street
#16-01 Manulife Tower
Singapore 048424
Disclaimers
Manulife does not warrant this website for any particular purpose. It is provided "as is" and on an "as available" basis. Manulife disclaims, to the fullest extent of the law, any warranty of any kind, whether statutory, express or implied, as to any information, materials, content or matter provided at or through this website or otherwise relating to this website, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement of third party rights, or freedom from computer virus or other malicious destruction or corrupting code, agent, program or macros. Use of this website is at your own risk.
Manulife and its directors, officers, or employees will not be liable or have any responsibility of any kind for any loss or damage that you incur arising from or in connection with:
Manulife does not warrant that this website, or the functions contained in this website, will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that this website, or the servers that make it available, are free from viruses or other harmful components. You assume the entire cost of any necessary servicing, repairing, or correcting of your property or operations as a result of using this website. You accept at your own risk that the Internet or other online communications medium may not perform as intended as a result of human, mechanical, or other error, despite the efforts of Manulife, you, or any third party.
In no event will Manulife or its directors, officers, or employees be liable to you for any direct, indirect, special, consequential, or incidental damages related in any way to your use of this website, even if: (a) such damages are reasonably foreseeable; or (b) Manulife or any other party has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
Records
You acknowledge and agree that Manulife Singapore's records and any records of communications, transactions, instructions or operations relating to the operation of the website and any record of any communications, transactions, instructions or operations maintained by Manulife Singapore or by any relevant person authorised by Manulife Singapore relating to or connected with the website shall be binding on you for all purposes whatsoever and shall be conclusive evidence of such communications, transactions, instructions or operations. You agree that such records are admissible in evidence and that you shall not challenge or dispute the admissibility, reliability, accuracy or the authenticity of the contents of such records merely on the basis that such records were in electronic form or were produced by or are the output of a computer system, and hereby waive any of your rights (if any) to so object.
Governing Law
These Terms shall be subject to, governed by, and construed in accordance with the laws of Singapore, and you hereby submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the Singapore Courts.
