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Not another bubble: How semiconductors are powering a real future

20 May 2026

Ryan Davies, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager

Michael P. Evans, CFA Managing Director, Equity Client Portfolio Manager

Semiconductors sit behind almost every modern experience – from smartphones and cars to cloud computing and today’s AI tools – yet they remain largely invisible to most people. They are more than chips only, and the demand is being supported by several long-term forces. We believe that today’s semiconductor excitement is not a repeat of the dot-com bubble, as investment is tied to real infrastructure and revenue-generating services. And the opportunity is broader than a handful of headline AI names.

Key points:

  • The market opportunity is large and expanding. The industry is projected to grow strongly through 2030.
  • Unlike the dot.com bubble, this semi-conductor cycle has more tangible foundations than past technology manias. Spending is tied to physical infrastructure and monetisable services, not just hype.
  • Semi cycles and sub-sectors differ and don’t move together. An active, global value-chain approach is better positioned to capture broader opportunities than a couple of headline AI or semiconductor names.

 

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    Semiconductors sit behind almost every modern experience – from smartphones and cars to cloud computing and today’s AI tools – yet they remain largely invisible to most people. They are more than chips only, and the demand is being supported by several long-term forces. We believe that today’s semiconductor excitement is not a repeat of the dot-com bubble, as investment is tied to real infrastructure and revenue-generating services. And the opportunity is broader than a handful of headline AI names.

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